Shea Allen » Tropical

Tropical Update: Gustav, Hanna, Ike & Josephine

Shea — Tue, 02 Sep 2008 23:39:51 +0000

Busy day today, so let’s get moving. First things first: Gustav has weakened to Tropical Depression status today. Even though the punch wasn’t as bad as they predicted, making landfall in Cocodrie, LA as a category 2 hurricane, the rainfall has been quite substantial. The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center says that Saraland, AL tops the charts for most rainfall from Gustav with 7.62 inches at 1PM today. The Little River near Rochelle, LA takes second place with only 7.07 inches and Big Creek at Pollock, LA comes in third place with 6.91 inches. Storm total rainfalls are exptected to be five to ten inches with isolated maximums reaching fifteen inches or more covering portions of Louisiana, Arkansas and Mississippi. It is all downhill from here for this storm as it sits on land rotating just NW of Baton Rouge, LA. No more predictions as of now since its barely hanging on.

Time to move on to more important storms! Good Day to you Tropical Storm Hanna! Okay, this storm, as Fay did, has been acting unusual lately. All the models for this storm ARE saying that it will eventually head North along the Florida Atlantic coastline making landfall either somewhere along the way, Georgia or South Caroline. It is in no immediate threat to Destin, FL or any other city on the Gulf of Mexico coast. Below is an image with all its models in case you don’t believe me =)

Hanna is expected to become a hurricane Wednesday evening while it grazes over top of the Bahamas which are, of course, in a Hurricane Warning right now. Besides the Tropical Storm Warning of North Haiti, there are no other warnings/watches at this time. I do not believe Hanna will do any more damage than Gustav when its time to make landfall. Also, I won’t be watching Hanna as much as I do the storms which make it into the Gulf of Mexico as they do not pertain to me locally. Moving on!

Tropical Storm Ike formed yesterday evening (Monday, September 1st) and almost seemed to skip Tropical Depression status. As far as I understand, they are not able to determine wind speeds, and thus storm potential, without sending the Hurricane Hunters into the eye of the storm. In other words, Ike must’ve been a tropical depression at one point, but since it wasn’t checked out sooner (as irrelevant as it is being so far out while we’re being attacked by Gustav and Hanna), then it is at first advisory, a Tropical Storm. EVERY SINGLE COMPUTER MODEL shows Ike taking a due west path, as I said yesterday, and coming across Caribbean, then Cuba, and into the Gulf of Mexico. To far into the future to say where it’ll be heading from there if it makes it that far without deciding to take an alternate route. There are chances it will head towards the Yucatan Peninsula and into Mexico, or it could veer North and make landfall in the United States. Here is the official NHC projected path:

I’ll be watching this one carefully so stay tuned for updates on Ike.

Last but certainly not least, Tropical Storm Josephine decided to organize today out of Tropical Depression ten off the coast of Africa. It is even FURTHER away than Ike and already pulling itself together. Scary scary. Most of the computer models have it heading a little bit above Ike as it takes a WNW path towards the coastline but it will easily be almost two weeks before its an immediate threat to anybody. Satellite anyone?

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Tracking Ike, 9th named Atlantic storm for 2008

Shea — Tue, 02 Sep 2008 14:28:08 +0000

Being only the second day of the most active month for the Atlantic tropical season, September, there have been no signs of severe storm development slowing. As Gustav made landfall being only a category 2 and Hanna begins her northerly path up the east coast of Florida, the ninth storm successfully making it past depression status has been named Ike. Sounds like a beast! And what a route the models are predicting.

Even though Hanna is going to be the attention getter this week while it nears landfall somewhere near Georgia / South Carolina border, Ike is one to keep an eye on. Most computer models show Ike pressing onward across the Bahamas towards Cuba and eventually into the Gulf of Mexico. It is still to early to say anything, but there are currently no high or low pressure systems that will have an effect on it’s path.

I’m not going to include the official NHC projection in this post as it is the same as all the computer models shown above. If you would like to check it out, visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/. But Ike isn’t the end for this week’s excitement. Already we have TD 10 which just recently formed off the coast of Africa. Most models show it taking a WNW path away from any U.S. landfall. I personally think they’re all wrong except for the GFS model showing it heading almost due west below the 15° longitude. Not that I’m a pessimist, but because I would say about 95% of storms that pop off the African coastline in our busy season come much closer before finding their way.

I will have destruction pictures from Gustav shortly, from both my house and hopefully Baton Rouge, LA. Stay tuned.

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TS Hanna 2PM Sat, Aug 30

Shea — Sat, 30 Aug 2008 19:15:26 +0000

Our wind speed probabilities for TS Hanna show it having about the same chance over the next 120 hours of being a Tropical Storm as it does a Category 1 Hurricane. Hanna has finally begun is due west motions crossing the Bahama’s and heading towards the Florida Keys. Here is the official NHC projection:

(click on images for full size)

Most models are predicting that Hanna should stay a Tropical Storm for a little while probably until it hits the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. It is VERY hard to say whether or not Hanna has a chance of becoming a bad storm like Gustav as its still way out in the middle of the Atlantic. With that being said, I personally don’t expect it to become any stronger than a Category 2 Hurricane by the time it settles somewhere on land. This is a storm that could cut right through the Gulf and head straight for Mexico / Texas or turn North any hour now and cause South Carolina, Georgia some issues.

click on images for full size)

(click on images for full size)

That satellite image is there just to give you an idea on the size of Hanna. But to make you feel better, here is the radar of Hanna. If you watch it carefully, the last few hours it has slowed down tremendously almost to a stop which I can only assume is because the high pressure system in the way above Florida. This stop could also be from Gustav reign of the Gulf of Mexico.

(click on images for full size)

But yes, overall, Hanna is nothing to worry about YET. We will continue to watch it as it progresses over the next few days. I will update on Hanna as things change, although I’ll be more focused on Gustav as of now.

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Hello Cat 5 Hurricane Gustav! 2PM Sat 30

Shea — Sat, 30 Aug 2008 18:58:02 +0000

Can you believe it? In a few hours Hurricane Gustav will become a category five hurricane as it enters the Gulf of Mexico. There isn’t much to say about this one so I’ll keep it short and to the point. Let’s start simple with Wunderground’s track.

Some of the computer models are beginning to show more of a push towards the LA / TX border, I’m predicting it’ll head in somewhere around Lake Charles, Louisiana. The chance of it changing directions at this point and heading for the FL panhandle are slim to none – but not zero. Meteorologists are saying because of the strength of Gustav, it’s digging up cold water from the bottom of the gulf which will slow wind speeds down before it hits land as a cat 3 hurricane. As you can see, 8AM Monday is a cat 4, within 24 hours, 8AM Tuesday is a cat 1. It’ll fall quickly as most storms due when they suck in that dry air off land. Here are some computer models:

(click on images for full size)

Last image shows the Atlantic Basin radar. You can get a good idea of the size of Gustav at its current time. I’ll update Hanna in a few minutes since it’s starting to change paths towards the FL Keys. Right past Hanna you can see another low pressure system that has less than 20% chance of developing..still a better chance than most weather. Right after that is a strong low pressure system popping off Africa and crossing the Cape Verde islands. It has a very good chance of becoming a depression in the next day or so and will be one storm to keep an eye on within the next few weeks.

If you have not had enough warning yet and are still in the projected path of Gustav, now is not the time to take your chances. Do not become a statistic, leave now.

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Hurricane Gustav 8PM Friday 29th

Shea — Sat, 30 Aug 2008 01:20:16 +0000

Gustav is still on it’s direct path to somewhere in Louisiana. As of now it looks like New Orleans will be clear of the eye but that’s no need to celebrate. The Northeast section of any storm is the worst part so for Gustav to head in south of Baton Rouge or even close to Lake Charles, then N.O. / Metairie will see some of the worst. A few models, as shown below, predict that the high pressure system that’s expanding above the panhandle of Florida will push Gustav further West towards the texas coastline. This could be good for New Orleans, but still bad for wherever the storm heads.

However, this high pressure system everybody is talking about is growing so rapid that it may wind up covering part of Mississippi and maybe even Louisiana. Sounds good right? Not. This storm will go North. If that high pressure system expands to cover the coast, Gustav will just stop in the gulf. Once again, sounds good right? Wrong! The longer Gustav sits in the Gulf of Mexico, the more strength will build and the more moisture accumulate. Good news would be for the high pressure to not form allowing Gustav to speed up and just hit land as a high two. Here is the NHC’s path:

Even though no models are showing it heading towards Florida, everybody around me is taking precautions. Families are leaving so they don’t take any chance. Gustav has an extremely good chance of changing paths last moment thanks to the coastal tides of the Gulf. A good example would be Katrina – destined for Pensacola, last minute heads for Biloxi. Here is the GOES 8 Radar as of right now. What a pretty shot of both Gustav and Hanna. Man, Hanna is another story all together. Check back tomorrow for an update on Hanna and Gustav.

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Tropical Storm Gustav – 2:00PM

Shea — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 19:42:49 +0000

So this storm has already made a move that none of the computer models had predicted. This morning it took a sharp turn downward and went almost due south for a few hours before returning to its original path of NW. Now almost all 6 computer models show the system heading for New Orleans. I believe the state issued a “state of emergency” on Monday for its coastal cities, but this is still unconfirmed. I still have a little hunch that the storm will not be directly hitting Louisiana. I believe it may continue to travel a little more West possibly scratching the surface of the Yucatan Peninsula before heading North again towards Texas OR the low pressure system hanging around lower Mexico (shown below) will resurface into the Gulf and push Gustav East towards the Alabama/Florida line.

Here are the models. I’ll update when something changes.

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Tropical Storm Hanna 2:00PM

Shea — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 19:24:40 +0000

Hello Hanna! We’re getting close to the end of August as the eighth named storm of the season gathers strength. Even though it is far from anywhere right now, it is still a storm to watch. Since almost EVERY meterologist got Fay wrong a few weeks ago, we have to start watching these a little closer. The National Hurricane Center gives Hanna a 42% chance of becoming a Hurricane within the next 48 hours which actually increases to a 62% chance in 72 hours. Although the storm is still way out in the middle of nowhere heading NW, most computer models according to wunderground (see below), predict that it’ll be taking a sharp turn sometime Sunday. This will be caused by a high pressure system moving off the east coast.

I will update when things change. Until then, keep an eye on Gustav!

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TS Gustav 11:00AM CST

Shea — Wed, 27 Aug 2008 16:37:31 +0000

This graphic shows an approximate representation of coastal areas under a hurricane warning (red), hurricane watch (pink), tropical storm warning (blue) and tropical storm watch (yellow). The orange circle indicates the current position of the center of the tropical cyclone. The black line and dots show the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track of the center at the times indicated. The dot indicating the forecast center location will be black if the cyclone is forecast to be tropical and will be white with a black outline if the cyclone is forecast to be extratropical. If only an L is displayed, then the system is forecast to be a remnant low. The letter inside the dot indicates the NHC’s forecast intensity for that time.

NHC forecast tracks of the center can be in error; track forecast errors in recent years were used to construct the areas of uncertainty for the first 3 days (solid white area) and for days 4 and 5 (white stippled area). These areas of uncertainty are formed by enclosing the area swept out by a set of circles (not shown) along the forecast track (at 12, 24, 36 hours, etc). The size of each circle is set so that two-thirds of historical official forecast errors over a 5-year sample fall within the circle. The historical data indicate the entire 5-day path of the center of the tropical cyclone will remain within the outer uncertainty area about 60-70% of the time. There is also uncertainty in the NHC intensity forecasts. The Maximum 1-minute Wind Speed Probability Table provides intensity forecast and uncertainty information.