Shea Allen » 2008

Hurricane Gustav 8PM Friday 29th

Shea — Sat, 30 Aug 2008 01:20:16 +0000

Gustav is still on it’s direct path to somewhere in Louisiana. As of now it looks like New Orleans will be clear of the eye but that’s no need to celebrate. The Northeast section of any storm is the worst part so for Gustav to head in south of Baton Rouge or even close to Lake Charles, then N.O. / Metairie will see some of the worst. A few models, as shown below, predict that the high pressure system that’s expanding above the panhandle of Florida will push Gustav further West towards the texas coastline. This could be good for New Orleans, but still bad for wherever the storm heads.

However, this high pressure system everybody is talking about is growing so rapid that it may wind up covering part of Mississippi and maybe even Louisiana. Sounds good right? Not. This storm will go North. If that high pressure system expands to cover the coast, Gustav will just stop in the gulf. Once again, sounds good right? Wrong! The longer Gustav sits in the Gulf of Mexico, the more strength will build and the more moisture accumulate. Good news would be for the high pressure to not form allowing Gustav to speed up and just hit land as a high two. Here is the NHC’s path:

Even though no models are showing it heading towards Florida, everybody around me is taking precautions. Families are leaving so they don’t take any chance. Gustav has an extremely good chance of changing paths last moment thanks to the coastal tides of the Gulf. A good example would be Katrina – destined for Pensacola, last minute heads for Biloxi. Here is the GOES 8 Radar as of right now. What a pretty shot of both Gustav and Hanna. Man, Hanna is another story all together. Check back tomorrow for an update on Hanna and Gustav.

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Tropical Storm Gustav – 2:00PM

Shea — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 19:42:49 +0000

So this storm has already made a move that none of the computer models had predicted. This morning it took a sharp turn downward and went almost due south for a few hours before returning to its original path of NW. Now almost all 6 computer models show the system heading for New Orleans. I believe the state issued a “state of emergency” on Monday for its coastal cities, but this is still unconfirmed. I still have a little hunch that the storm will not be directly hitting Louisiana. I believe it may continue to travel a little more West possibly scratching the surface of the Yucatan Peninsula before heading North again towards Texas OR the low pressure system hanging around lower Mexico (shown below) will resurface into the Gulf and push Gustav East towards the Alabama/Florida line.

Here are the models. I’ll update when something changes.

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Tropical Storm Hanna 2:00PM

Shea — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 19:24:40 +0000

Hello Hanna! We’re getting close to the end of August as the eighth named storm of the season gathers strength. Even though it is far from anywhere right now, it is still a storm to watch. Since almost EVERY meterologist got Fay wrong a few weeks ago, we have to start watching these a little closer. The National Hurricane Center gives Hanna a 42% chance of becoming a Hurricane within the next 48 hours which actually increases to a 62% chance in 72 hours. Although the storm is still way out in the middle of nowhere heading NW, most computer models according to wunderground (see below), predict that it’ll be taking a sharp turn sometime Sunday. This will be caused by a high pressure system moving off the east coast.

I will update when things change. Until then, keep an eye on Gustav!

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TS Gustav 11:00AM CST

Shea — Wed, 27 Aug 2008 16:37:31 +0000

This graphic shows an approximate representation of coastal areas under a hurricane warning (red), hurricane watch (pink), tropical storm warning (blue) and tropical storm watch (yellow). The orange circle indicates the current position of the center of the tropical cyclone. The black line and dots show the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track of the center at the times indicated. The dot indicating the forecast center location will be black if the cyclone is forecast to be tropical and will be white with a black outline if the cyclone is forecast to be extratropical. If only an L is displayed, then the system is forecast to be a remnant low. The letter inside the dot indicates the NHC’s forecast intensity for that time.

NHC forecast tracks of the center can be in error; track forecast errors in recent years were used to construct the areas of uncertainty for the first 3 days (solid white area) and for days 4 and 5 (white stippled area). These areas of uncertainty are formed by enclosing the area swept out by a set of circles (not shown) along the forecast track (at 12, 24, 36 hours, etc). The size of each circle is set so that two-thirds of historical official forecast errors over a 5-year sample fall within the circle. The historical data indicate the entire 5-day path of the center of the tropical cyclone will remain within the outer uncertainty area about 60-70% of the time. There is also uncertainty in the NHC intensity forecasts. The Maximum 1-minute Wind Speed Probability Table provides intensity forecast and uncertainty information.