Shea Allen » hurricane

Tropical Update: Gustav, Hanna, Ike & Josephine

Shea — Tue, 02 Sep 2008 23:39:51 +0000

Busy day today, so let’s get moving. First things first: Gustav has weakened to Tropical Depression status today. Even though the punch wasn’t as bad as they predicted, making landfall in Cocodrie, LA as a category 2 hurricane, the rainfall has been quite substantial. The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center says that Saraland, AL tops the charts for most rainfall from Gustav with 7.62 inches at 1PM today. The Little River near Rochelle, LA takes second place with only 7.07 inches and Big Creek at Pollock, LA comes in third place with 6.91 inches. Storm total rainfalls are exptected to be five to ten inches with isolated maximums reaching fifteen inches or more covering portions of Louisiana, Arkansas and Mississippi. It is all downhill from here for this storm as it sits on land rotating just NW of Baton Rouge, LA. No more predictions as of now since its barely hanging on.

Time to move on to more important storms! Good Day to you Tropical Storm Hanna! Okay, this storm, as Fay did, has been acting unusual lately. All the models for this storm ARE saying that it will eventually head North along the Florida Atlantic coastline making landfall either somewhere along the way, Georgia or South Caroline. It is in no immediate threat to Destin, FL or any other city on the Gulf of Mexico coast. Below is an image with all its models in case you don’t believe me =)

Hanna is expected to become a hurricane Wednesday evening while it grazes over top of the Bahamas which are, of course, in a Hurricane Warning right now. Besides the Tropical Storm Warning of North Haiti, there are no other warnings/watches at this time. I do not believe Hanna will do any more damage than Gustav when its time to make landfall. Also, I won’t be watching Hanna as much as I do the storms which make it into the Gulf of Mexico as they do not pertain to me locally. Moving on!

Tropical Storm Ike formed yesterday evening (Monday, September 1st) and almost seemed to skip Tropical Depression status. As far as I understand, they are not able to determine wind speeds, and thus storm potential, without sending the Hurricane Hunters into the eye of the storm. In other words, Ike must’ve been a tropical depression at one point, but since it wasn’t checked out sooner (as irrelevant as it is being so far out while we’re being attacked by Gustav and Hanna), then it is at first advisory, a Tropical Storm. EVERY SINGLE COMPUTER MODEL shows Ike taking a due west path, as I said yesterday, and coming across Caribbean, then Cuba, and into the Gulf of Mexico. To far into the future to say where it’ll be heading from there if it makes it that far without deciding to take an alternate route. There are chances it will head towards the Yucatan Peninsula and into Mexico, or it could veer North and make landfall in the United States. Here is the official NHC projected path:

I’ll be watching this one carefully so stay tuned for updates on Ike.

Last but certainly not least, Tropical Storm Josephine decided to organize today out of Tropical Depression ten off the coast of Africa. It is even FURTHER away than Ike and already pulling itself together. Scary scary. Most of the computer models have it heading a little bit above Ike as it takes a WNW path towards the coastline but it will easily be almost two weeks before its an immediate threat to anybody. Satellite anyone?

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Hello Cat 5 Hurricane Gustav! 2PM Sat 30

Shea — Sat, 30 Aug 2008 18:58:02 +0000

Can you believe it? In a few hours Hurricane Gustav will become a category five hurricane as it enters the Gulf of Mexico. There isn’t much to say about this one so I’ll keep it short and to the point. Let’s start simple with Wunderground’s track.

Some of the computer models are beginning to show more of a push towards the LA / TX border, I’m predicting it’ll head in somewhere around Lake Charles, Louisiana. The chance of it changing directions at this point and heading for the FL panhandle are slim to none – but not zero. Meteorologists are saying because of the strength of Gustav, it’s digging up cold water from the bottom of the gulf which will slow wind speeds down before it hits land as a cat 3 hurricane. As you can see, 8AM Monday is a cat 4, within 24 hours, 8AM Tuesday is a cat 1. It’ll fall quickly as most storms due when they suck in that dry air off land. Here are some computer models:

(click on images for full size)

Last image shows the Atlantic Basin radar. You can get a good idea of the size of Gustav at its current time. I’ll update Hanna in a few minutes since it’s starting to change paths towards the FL Keys. Right past Hanna you can see another low pressure system that has less than 20% chance of developing..still a better chance than most weather. Right after that is a strong low pressure system popping off Africa and crossing the Cape Verde islands. It has a very good chance of becoming a depression in the next day or so and will be one storm to keep an eye on within the next few weeks.

If you have not had enough warning yet and are still in the projected path of Gustav, now is not the time to take your chances. Do not become a statistic, leave now.

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Hurricane Gustav 8PM Friday 29th

Shea — Sat, 30 Aug 2008 01:20:16 +0000

Gustav is still on it’s direct path to somewhere in Louisiana. As of now it looks like New Orleans will be clear of the eye but that’s no need to celebrate. The Northeast section of any storm is the worst part so for Gustav to head in south of Baton Rouge or even close to Lake Charles, then N.O. / Metairie will see some of the worst. A few models, as shown below, predict that the high pressure system that’s expanding above the panhandle of Florida will push Gustav further West towards the texas coastline. This could be good for New Orleans, but still bad for wherever the storm heads.

However, this high pressure system everybody is talking about is growing so rapid that it may wind up covering part of Mississippi and maybe even Louisiana. Sounds good right? Not. This storm will go North. If that high pressure system expands to cover the coast, Gustav will just stop in the gulf. Once again, sounds good right? Wrong! The longer Gustav sits in the Gulf of Mexico, the more strength will build and the more moisture accumulate. Good news would be for the high pressure to not form allowing Gustav to speed up and just hit land as a high two. Here is the NHC’s path:

Even though no models are showing it heading towards Florida, everybody around me is taking precautions. Families are leaving so they don’t take any chance. Gustav has an extremely good chance of changing paths last moment thanks to the coastal tides of the Gulf. A good example would be Katrina – destined for Pensacola, last minute heads for Biloxi. Here is the GOES 8 Radar as of right now. What a pretty shot of both Gustav and Hanna. Man, Hanna is another story all together. Check back tomorrow for an update on Hanna and Gustav.