Shea Allen » tropical storm

Tropical Update: Gustav, Hanna, Ike & Josephine

Shea — Tue, 02 Sep 2008 23:39:51 +0000

Busy day today, so let’s get moving. First things first: Gustav has weakened to Tropical Depression status today. Even though the punch wasn’t as bad as they predicted, making landfall in Cocodrie, LA as a category 2 hurricane, the rainfall has been quite substantial. The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center says that Saraland, AL tops the charts for most rainfall from Gustav with 7.62 inches at 1PM today. The Little River near Rochelle, LA takes second place with only 7.07 inches and Big Creek at Pollock, LA comes in third place with 6.91 inches. Storm total rainfalls are exptected to be five to ten inches with isolated maximums reaching fifteen inches or more covering portions of Louisiana, Arkansas and Mississippi. It is all downhill from here for this storm as it sits on land rotating just NW of Baton Rouge, LA. No more predictions as of now since its barely hanging on.

Time to move on to more important storms! Good Day to you Tropical Storm Hanna! Okay, this storm, as Fay did, has been acting unusual lately. All the models for this storm ARE saying that it will eventually head North along the Florida Atlantic coastline making landfall either somewhere along the way, Georgia or South Caroline. It is in no immediate threat to Destin, FL or any other city on the Gulf of Mexico coast. Below is an image with all its models in case you don’t believe me =)

Hanna is expected to become a hurricane Wednesday evening while it grazes over top of the Bahamas which are, of course, in a Hurricane Warning right now. Besides the Tropical Storm Warning of North Haiti, there are no other warnings/watches at this time. I do not believe Hanna will do any more damage than Gustav when its time to make landfall. Also, I won’t be watching Hanna as much as I do the storms which make it into the Gulf of Mexico as they do not pertain to me locally. Moving on!

Tropical Storm Ike formed yesterday evening (Monday, September 1st) and almost seemed to skip Tropical Depression status. As far as I understand, they are not able to determine wind speeds, and thus storm potential, without sending the Hurricane Hunters into the eye of the storm. In other words, Ike must’ve been a tropical depression at one point, but since it wasn’t checked out sooner (as irrelevant as it is being so far out while we’re being attacked by Gustav and Hanna), then it is at first advisory, a Tropical Storm. EVERY SINGLE COMPUTER MODEL shows Ike taking a due west path, as I said yesterday, and coming across Caribbean, then Cuba, and into the Gulf of Mexico. To far into the future to say where it’ll be heading from there if it makes it that far without deciding to take an alternate route. There are chances it will head towards the Yucatan Peninsula and into Mexico, or it could veer North and make landfall in the United States. Here is the official NHC projected path:

I’ll be watching this one carefully so stay tuned for updates on Ike.

Last but certainly not least, Tropical Storm Josephine decided to organize today out of Tropical Depression ten off the coast of Africa. It is even FURTHER away than Ike and already pulling itself together. Scary scary. Most of the computer models have it heading a little bit above Ike as it takes a WNW path towards the coastline but it will easily be almost two weeks before its an immediate threat to anybody. Satellite anyone?

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Tracking Ike, 9th named Atlantic storm for 2008

Shea — Tue, 02 Sep 2008 14:28:08 +0000

Being only the second day of the most active month for the Atlantic tropical season, September, there have been no signs of severe storm development slowing. As Gustav made landfall being only a category 2 and Hanna begins her northerly path up the east coast of Florida, the ninth storm successfully making it past depression status has been named Ike. Sounds like a beast! And what a route the models are predicting.

Even though Hanna is going to be the attention getter this week while it nears landfall somewhere near Georgia / South Carolina border, Ike is one to keep an eye on. Most computer models show Ike pressing onward across the Bahamas towards Cuba and eventually into the Gulf of Mexico. It is still to early to say anything, but there are currently no high or low pressure systems that will have an effect on it’s path.

I’m not going to include the official NHC projection in this post as it is the same as all the computer models shown above. If you would like to check it out, visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/. But Ike isn’t the end for this week’s excitement. Already we have TD 10 which just recently formed off the coast of Africa. Most models show it taking a WNW path away from any U.S. landfall. I personally think they’re all wrong except for the GFS model showing it heading almost due west below the 15° longitude. Not that I’m a pessimist, but because I would say about 95% of storms that pop off the African coastline in our busy season come much closer before finding their way.

I will have destruction pictures from Gustav shortly, from both my house and hopefully Baton Rouge, LA. Stay tuned.

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TS Hanna 2PM Sat, Aug 30

Shea — Sat, 30 Aug 2008 19:15:26 +0000

Our wind speed probabilities for TS Hanna show it having about the same chance over the next 120 hours of being a Tropical Storm as it does a Category 1 Hurricane. Hanna has finally begun is due west motions crossing the Bahama’s and heading towards the Florida Keys. Here is the official NHC projection:

(click on images for full size)

Most models are predicting that Hanna should stay a Tropical Storm for a little while probably until it hits the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. It is VERY hard to say whether or not Hanna has a chance of becoming a bad storm like Gustav as its still way out in the middle of the Atlantic. With that being said, I personally don’t expect it to become any stronger than a Category 2 Hurricane by the time it settles somewhere on land. This is a storm that could cut right through the Gulf and head straight for Mexico / Texas or turn North any hour now and cause South Carolina, Georgia some issues.

click on images for full size)

(click on images for full size)

That satellite image is there just to give you an idea on the size of Hanna. But to make you feel better, here is the radar of Hanna. If you watch it carefully, the last few hours it has slowed down tremendously almost to a stop which I can only assume is because the high pressure system in the way above Florida. This stop could also be from Gustav reign of the Gulf of Mexico.

(click on images for full size)

But yes, overall, Hanna is nothing to worry about YET. We will continue to watch it as it progresses over the next few days. I will update on Hanna as things change, although I’ll be more focused on Gustav as of now.

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TS Gustav 11:00AM CST

Shea — Wed, 27 Aug 2008 16:37:31 +0000

This graphic shows an approximate representation of coastal areas under a hurricane warning (red), hurricane watch (pink), tropical storm warning (blue) and tropical storm watch (yellow). The orange circle indicates the current position of the center of the tropical cyclone. The black line and dots show the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track of the center at the times indicated. The dot indicating the forecast center location will be black if the cyclone is forecast to be tropical and will be white with a black outline if the cyclone is forecast to be extratropical. If only an L is displayed, then the system is forecast to be a remnant low. The letter inside the dot indicates the NHC’s forecast intensity for that time.

NHC forecast tracks of the center can be in error; track forecast errors in recent years were used to construct the areas of uncertainty for the first 3 days (solid white area) and for days 4 and 5 (white stippled area). These areas of uncertainty are formed by enclosing the area swept out by a set of circles (not shown) along the forecast track (at 12, 24, 36 hours, etc). The size of each circle is set so that two-thirds of historical official forecast errors over a 5-year sample fall within the circle. The historical data indicate the entire 5-day path of the center of the tropical cyclone will remain within the outer uncertainty area about 60-70% of the time. There is also uncertainty in the NHC intensity forecasts. The Maximum 1-minute Wind Speed Probability Table provides intensity forecast and uncertainty information.